March 27 2024

Boy how I hate the month of March. One day it feels like summer is here and the next day I go for a walk and catch a chill. I think there has not been a March where I have not had a cold of some sort. You know, you might be thinking why I start most posts with state of the union speech on the union’s health. Because , this year, so far ot has been all it has been about. I hope I can pivot away from this topic sooner rather than later.

Indian elections are in the air. And as usual there is debate around whether the government has done enough: it seems that it has but it is also clear that they are paining a far rosier picture of their achievements than is actually the case. But so did most of my bosses and colleagues at their year end appraisals. When the stakes are high, then you get these behaviours. There is some degree of consensus that the central government made an impact in digital payments, infrastructure and a few other more minor things. But most think that they failed spectacularly on creating jobs, improve healthcare and do any reforms on education. The fact is it is easy to criticise any government- it is not an easy job. No other previous government has never achieved all that much either. Because we are a poor country- the income of any government is too paltry to make a serious dent in development. And then there is also the small matter of staying power, which happens to be a pre requisite for doing anything at all. Just before the elections there is the added impetus to make people happy by agreeing to all kinds of things- like relaxation of loan repayments - which have a cost eventually to the taxpayer. This feels like a transaction cost of  winning elections which is fine for a developed country like USA- but for a poor country like India this a criminal waste of money that could be otherwise be used to build hospitals. We need to reduce the money and time spent on elections somehow- I wish I had a recommendation here on how to make it happen but surely there are great minds available that can come up with something.

Meanwhile the general view is that BJP will win easily- however the manner in which bjp is using ED and CBI to put prominent opposition in compromising positions belies this greatly. It almost seems that they are scared of a potential loss and hence they are using every trick in the book to avoid this. At the end of the day the reason BJP will continue to win is because Modi has struck a chord with the masses both internally and externally. It helps that he is an RSS karyakarta owing to which he embodies hardship and also a sense of community service. Not for him the easy stress-free  life and also he does not seem to have much use for money other than some sleek tailoring. The public notes his work ethic and simplicity- it is a proxy for being atleast an honest trier if not a trailblazer. 

Another much vexed KPI is GDP growth- the government is using favourable GDP growth projections to promote optimism - which is largely misplaced.

Vietnam and Indonesia seem to be benefit more than India for the China+ supply chain strategy.

And what to say of the ED and CBI being misused. kejriwal of AAP and the chief minister of Delhi is now under arrest on the pretext of a shady excise on liquor policy which was a front to launder money to fund elections- especially the elections in goa. It is a bummer for AAP as they did not manage to win anything in Goa in spite of such machinations.