March 31, 2024

Arvind Kejriwal is the only contender for Modi’s crown. At the moment he is only holding on to the States of Punjab and Delhi- but going by his popularity, at least in Delhi, he can slowly but surely build AAP into a Pan-India party to take on the behemoth that is BJP. He has quite a few things going for him. The first, he is an IIT KGP alumnus, and these guys, aside of being bright, have a tremendous track record at punching light years above their weight. He used Anti-Corruption as his Mantra when the party first started. It was a good idea at the time, we were wallowing in scam after scam. Now the BJP is already viewed as anti-corruption, which may dilute this angle a bit with respect to the BJP. But it still works against the Congress. Finally, the chap had options. He could have been in Wall Street if he wanted money. He chose to rough it out in the streets with massive rallies and outreach efforts- atleast in the initial years of the AAP. He has done remarkably well already considering his party is only slightly more than a decade old. With the advent of technology, the proliferation of its support can progress very rapidly indeed. And the BJP know this. Hence his arrest. 

However, standing against corruption is slippery slope because it is hard to define. Can you atleast be a little corrupt versus zero corrupt? How can we be so naïve as to think any of us can be completely corruption free and still be somehow functioning in society. Corruption is not just financial corruption. Imagine you are in the boardroom and a decision is being made to invest in a technology which you think is not going to work- but you extend support to it anyway because you don’t want trouble and it is where the winds are blowing anyway. Is this not moral corruption? How far can you go with being such an annoying idealist- you will end up with so much turmoil on a day to day basis that it will impact your vitals. The capitalist world has been carved in a certain way- and going against the flow is never going to work. Any party, even AAP, needs money. AAP needs much more than BJP since it is a fledgling party and needs to spend on establishing itself nationwide if not worldwide. It cannot pitch to investors today, as it is not currently in power. Investors in AAP or any party, via their investments are looking for a return- which by definition, is corruption. Any industrialist who donates money to a party is notionally engendering corruption. And if Electoral Bonds are anything to go by, this type of corruption is extant with all parties, particularly the incumbent one. It so happens that AAP decided to generate revenue via another method as well-which is what led to the excise on liquor situation. The reality is that if AAP went on the straight and narrow, they might win electoral support in the small segment that they are in, but will never have enough money to win far and wide- which is necessarily what they must do to have an impact on a national level. The fact is that the BJP does not need to resort to excise on liquor as a way to fund their party. They chose the donations from the Gujarati billionaire businessmen instead. If any one thinks that the BJP is thus not beholden to its donors, they are living in la la land. Therefore, AAP decided to bite the bullet and embarked on this scheme. I think it is to be noted that this money, while ill-gotten, cannot yet be said to be for any purpose other than to sustain the party. I don’t see AAP party members today having a second home in Singapore or Dubai- which could be said of the Congress for years.

Arvind needs thus to tread carefully. It is unlikely he can come out unscathed but he should do damage control so that he can bounce back. His arrest should definitely embolden him to estimate himself more highly, and keep his ambition on track. The sympathy vote is unlikely to work – if it is proven that he has been corrupt there will not be any. Hence he should come clean and admit in simple language what he has done and what compelled him to do it. He should apologise and state that he will need to accumulate party funds in other ways and is willing to hear ideas on this. He should re-iterate that he stands against corruption, but that he also stands for all the good deeds that are currently being pursued by the BJP. He should infact mirror the BJP in all ways except one. Which is that he should shed any communalism. BJP is already regarded as a hindu party that is going de-prioritise muslims, whether or not that is actually the case. AAP can be a BJP minus the communalism. This is the need of the hour and am sure AAP is clever enough to see it. If he can pull off this niche branding, he will see large swathes of votes gravitate towards him. He has far more in common to the BJP than the Congress anyway. His is not an elite party, although he hails from an IIT himself, but that is an intellectual eliteness rather than a dynastic or social eliteness. If he can convince, and I am sure he can, the masses that he is keen on a corrupt free, developmental agenda- but without trying to divide the country on religious lines. He is a good orator and is generally credible. Rahul Gandhi is neither and therefore you don’t see him being hounded by Enforcement Directorate. A strong AAP- in the same development oriented lines as BJP will be a massive boon for the country. Only one party for a country, only one customer for a business and only one supplier for a product are all recipes for an impending doom. It is not rocket science. It is going to unravel, it has always done. 

Hence I really hope Arvind Kejriwal plays his cards carefully and looks at the bigger picture.